In the 2024 major races, Republicans outperformed their September polls by 9 points in Iowa, 6 points in Ohio, and 5 points in Michigan.
Posted by Mike Johnson,
Can’t tellChecked
ShareUnverifiable. The sources repeat the claimed figures (Iowa 9, Ohio 6, Michigan 5 points) from CNN/Enten-style commentary, but none provides an independent record such as final polling averages versus results by state. The extracted claim matches the passage's scope (the 2024 president and Senate races), so the question is whether the magnitudes hold, and the sources cannot settle that.
What was said
Had really good Democratic polls coming out from Ohio, Michigan, Iowa. And, you know, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times. I just have to ask the question, could it happen again? Because just take a look at this. Okay? Midwest polling misses. GOP outperformed September polls by in the major 2024 races, I.e. president and Senate. In the states that had a Senate race in Iowa, where the Democrats have been getting really good polls, Republicans outperform their September polls by nine points back in 2024. How about Ohio? Six points. How about Michigan? Five points. And I will note that the leads that the Democrats have in all of these races right now are under how much the GOP outperformed back in 2024. So you look at this and you go, you know what? …
The underlined words are the passage of the post that best matches the claim. The claim above is Polygraph's wording of it.
What we found
Context. Sources [8], [9] and [10] repeat the same nine, six and five point figures without any underlying polling data, so they are circular and do not corroborate the claim.[1][2][3]
Context. Source [2], an unrated X post, attributes the Iowa, Ohio and Michigan over-performance figures to CNN, but it is a secondhand summary and does not show the September polls or the 2024 results.[4]
Context. The PolitiFact tier1 source on Trump's 2024 victory and The Hill tier1 piece on midterm polling do not address state-level September poll versus result gaps in Iowa, Ohio or Michigan.[5][6]
Context. Source [3] reports that Republicans were beating September numbers across several states, which indicates a directional trend but gives no state-level magnitudes to test the specific 9, 6 and 5 point figures.[7]
Sources
11 sources: 9 not rated, 1 fact-checker, 1 tier 1
- 1Enten: Since 2016, Republicans Have Outperformed ...yahoo.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 2Still Buying Blue Midwest Polls After Four Misses?youtube.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 3Blue wave is rising in Senate racesncronline.org · not rated · cited for: context
- 4Republicans usually outperform their September Rust belt ...x.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 5How big was Donald Trump's 2024 election victory? 8 ...politifact.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
- 6Just how bad are midterm polls for Republicans?thehill.com · tier 1 · cited for: context
- 7GOP outperformed September polls in 2024 races by statefacebook.com · not rated · cited for: context
4 more sources read, not cited in a finding +Hide the sources not cited −
- 8Donald Trump's Approval Rating Shifts in the Midwestnewsweek.com · not rated
- 9How the biggest swings from 2024 will decide the Senatedecisiondeskhq.substack.com · not rated
- 10What if GOP outperforms latest polls? New election ...reddit.com · not rated
- 1129 days until Election Day & Senate Republicans ...instagram.com · not rated
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post